Aaron Rodgers returns to the field on Monday night as the New York Jets head to Levi’s Stadium to face the San Francisco 49ers. Early money has poured in on the visitors and the Under, but my early Jets vs. 49ers predictions are going against the line movement.
Here are my best free NFL picks for this Week 1 showdown.
Jets vs 49ers predictions
Early spread lean49ers -4.5 (-105 at FanDuel)
My analysisThis spread opened with the San Francisco 49ers installed as 6-point favorites and slimmed as low as -3.5 before ticking back up to -4.5.
Super Bowl runners-up have gone 4-19 ATS in their following Week 1 openers since 2000. That said, most Super Bowl losers have plenty of roster turnover and tend to be due for regression after outperforming expectations, while the Niners return all their key starters and have been a perennial contender for years.
Quarterback Brock Purdy could be even better in his third year in the league, and getting leading receiver Brandon Aiyuk and All-Pro left tackle Trent Williams to sign extensions has ensured he’s surrounded by elite talent.
Meanwhile, the New York Jets have a holdout of their own in top edge rusher Haason Reddick, and there’s no end in sight to his contract squabbles. Reddick was expected to fill the void left by the departure of Bryce Huff in the offseason and without him on the field, Purdy will have time to find his targets.
New York’s offense is expected to be better with Aaron Rodgers, who missed virtually all of last year after tearing his Achilles tendon. That said, it’s tough to trust a 40-year-old quarterback coming off a serious injury, especially with plenty of questions on the Jets’ offensive line.
The Jets tried to upgrade their line in the offseason by signing Tyron Smith and Morgan Moses while drafting Olu Fashanu. However, until I see them live up to that potential, I can’t back them against a stingy San Fran stop unit, especially with Nathaniel Hackett still working as the Jets offensive playcaller after an abysmal campaign last season.
Early Over/Under leanOver 43.5 (-105 at FanDuel)
My analysisThese were the two best defenses in the league in 2022 but both units took a step back last year. I expect these defenses to fail to live up to expectations again this season, but their attacks should be potent.
The 49ers ranked 26th in the league in defensive rush EPA last year. With the departure of defensive lineman Arik Armstead in the offseason and linebacker Dre Greenlaw sidelined by an injury, they could have a tough time keeping Breece Hall in check.
That said, I also expect San Francisco to find holes in New York’s solid stop unit. The Jets held opponents to just 18.6 ppg in 2022 but they were 12th in the NFL in scoring defense last year (20.9 ppg) with that number ticking up to 22.4 ppg on the road.
The Jets have some excellent defenders in Quinnen Williams, C.J. Mosley, Quincy Williams, and Sauce Gardner. However, they also some weak links in their lineup and the 49ers have the weapons and the playcalling to exploit those vulnerabilities.
MORE NFL FREE PICKS
New UsersGet $200 in bonus bets and a free trial of NFL Sunday Ticket with FanDuel!
Bet $5 on the NFL and get $200 in bonus bets — PLUS a free three-week trial of the NFL Sunday Ticket from YouTube and YouTube TV!
Sign up now at FanDuel Sportsbook, or learn more with our comprehensive FanDuel review.
Claim Now at
See FanDuel T&Cs
Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Hope is here. GamblingHelpLineMA.org or call (800) 327-5050 for 24/7 support (MA). Call 1-877-8HOPE-NY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY).21+ and present in select states. FanDuel is offering online sports wagering in Kansas under an agreement with Kansas Star Casino, LLC. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit FanDuel.com/RG (CO, IA, KY, MI, NJ, OH, PA, IL, TN, VA, VT), 1-800-NEXT-STEP or text NEXTSTEP to 53342 (AZ), 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org/chat (CT), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 or visit ksgamblinghelp.com (KS), 1-877-770-STOP (LA), visit www.mdgamblinghelp.org (MD), 1-800-522-4700 (WY), or visit www.1800gambler.net (WV).
Jets vs 49ers live odds
Not intended for use in MA.Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
Pages related to this topic
.covers-interlinking-container {
display: flex;
flex-flow: row wrap;
gap: 16px;
padding-bottom: 32px;
}
.covers-CoversWTP-copySection .covers-interlinking-container {
padding-bottom: 9px;
}
.covers-coversOdds-sectionContainer .covers-interlinking-container {
padding-bottom: 0;
}
.covers-interlinking-linkdiv a {
border: 1px solid #FD5000;
border-radius: 4px;
font-size: 12px !important;
color: #15202B !important;
font-weight: 500;
padding: 7px 12px;
display: block;
}
.covers-interlinking-linkdiv a:hover,
.covers-interlinking-linkdiv a:active {
color: #fff !important;
background-color: #E14700;
border-color: #E14700;
transition: .2s !important;
}
p + h2.covers-interlinking-h2 {
margin-top: 0 !important;
}
Colorado Sports Betting
New York Sports Betting
California Sports Betting
North Carolina Sports Betting
New York Online Casinos
Best Football Betting Sites
NY Sportsbook Promos
Best Colorado Sportsbook Promotions
Best Football Betting Promo Codes
Denver Sports Betting
Rohit Ponnaiya
Betting Analyst
With a background playing soccer, rugby, and boxing, combined with a journalism degree, it’s little surprise that Rohit gravitated towards the world of sports betting. He specializes in betting on UFC and college basketball, two sports where the eyeball test can tell you a lot more about matchups than any analytics. Rohit has years of experience handicapping NFL and NBA games as well as niche betting markets such as politics and Oscar odds. He’s also the resident CFL expert and formerly hosted “The Chez and Ro Show” with former CFL star Davis Sanchez.
You can catch Rohit breaking down every UFC event with Joe Osborne on “P4P Picks” on the Covers YouTube channel and he also has regular appearances on “Before You Bet” with Joe. In addition, he’s a regular guest on “By The Book” on the Monumental Sports Network and makes guest appearances on VSIN’s “The Handle” and CBS Sports.
Rohit primarily makes his bets at bet365, which offers a wide variety of prop markets, but also has accounts at several others so he can shop around for the best prices. For Rohit, bankroll management is key. He believes you should never bet what you can’t afford to lose and maximize those few betting opportunities where books misprice a line.
Read More
